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Real Estate Only Goes Up... Not!

Published by Lawrence Roberts | December 26th 2008 | Views:

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The mantra of the National Association of Realtors is "real estate only goes up." This economic fallacy fosters the belief in future price increases and the limited risk of buying real estate. In 2006, prices in many markets began to fall. By 2008, the rate of price decline had greatly accelerated. This is dramatic proof that real estate does not always go up. Despite this obvious fact, the National Association of Realtors still tries to lure greedy buyers with fantasies of unlimited wealth in residential real estate.

Buyers are already prone to believe the fallacies of unlimited riches in real estate, and these fallacious beliefs lead to housing bubbles. Realtors should be prevented from making representations concerning the investment potential of real estate. Since the regulatory framework for this kind of regulation and oversight is already in place under the auspices of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Congress would merely need to make Realtors subject to these regulations in order to solve the problem.

In general real estate prices increase because salaries across the country do tend to increase with the general level of inflation, and it is through wages that people make payments for real estate assets. When the economy is strong and unemployment is low, prices for residential real estate tend to rise. Therefore, the fundamental valuation of real estate does go up most of the time. However, prices can, and often do, rise faster than the fundamental valuation of real estate, and it is in these instances when there is a price bubble.

Greed is a powerful motivating factor for the purchase of assets. It is a natural response for people to desire to make money by doing nothing more than owning an asset. The only counterbalance to greed is fear. However, if a potential buyer believes the asset cannot decline in value, or if it does, it will only be by a small amount for a very short period of time, there is little fear generated to temper their greed.

The belief that real estate only goes up has the effect of activating greed and diminishing fear. It is the perfect mantra for creating a price bubble, and so it was with the Great Housing Bubble.
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